Monday, March 7, 2016

Correction and Retracement of the STI and its Constituents

Up till today, the STI has dropped from its closing value of 2882.73 on 31 December 2015 to a low of 2528.44 and subsequently recovered to touch a high of 2850.52.   It makes a drop of 12.3% and, thus far, a maximum retracement of 90.9%.

The corresponding performances of individual STI constituent stocks as well as the STI ETF and Nikko AM STI ETF are shown together with the STI in the table below.


Closing price 
on 31 Dec 
2015 ($)
Lowest price 
in 2016 ($)
Drop ($)Drop (%)Highest price 
since lowest
Retracement
($)
Retracement 
(%)
Ascendas Reit 
2.280 
2.090 
0.19
8.3%
2.440 
0.35
184.2%
Capitaland
3.380 
2.800 
0.58
17.2%
3.190 
0.39
67.2%
Capitamall Trust
1.930 
1.870 
0.06
3.1%
2.240 
0.37
616.7%
CityDev
7.650 
6.750 
0.9
11.8%
7.830 
1.08
120.0%
ComfortDelGro
3.050 
2.780 
0.27
8.9%
3.050 
0.27
100.0%
DBS
16.690 
13.010 
3.68
22.0%
15.590 
2.58
70.1%
Genting Sing
0.770 
0.660 
0.11
14.3%
0.790 
0.13
118.2%
Global Logistic
2.150 
1.595 
0.555
25.8%
1.930 
0.335
60.4%
Golden Agri-Res
0.340 
0.325 
0.015
4.4%
0.405 
0.08
533.3%
HongkongLand USD
7.000 
5.550 
1.45
20.7%
6.160 
0.61
42.1%
HPH Trust USD
0.530 
0.410 
0.12
22.6%
0.495 
0.085
70.8%
Jardine C&C
34.850 
32.370 
2.48
7.1%
41.070 
8.7
350.8%
Keppel Corp
6.510 
4.640 
1.87
28.7%
6.340 
1.7
90.9%
Noble
0.400 
0.265 
0.135
33.8%
0.460 
0.195
144.4%
OCBC Bank
8.800 
7.410 
1.39
15.8%
8.840 
1.43
102.9%
SATS
3.840 
3.750 
0.09
2.3%
4.080 
0.33
366.7%
Sembcorp Ind
3.050 
2.160 
0.89
29.2%
3.240 
1.08
121.3%
Sembcorp Marine
1.750 
1.295 
0.455
26.0%
1.835 
0.54
118.7%
SGX
7.700 
6.610 
1.09
14.2%
7.700 
1.09
100.0%
SIA
11.200 
10.760 
0.44
3.9%
11.600 
0.84
190.9%
SIA Engineering
3.700 
3.310 
0.39
10.5%
3.690 
0.38
97.4%
Singtel
3.670 
3.380 
0.29
7.9%
3.830 
0.45
155.2%
SPH
3.940 
3.500 
0.44
11.2%
3.950 
0.45
102.3%
ST Engineering
3.010 
2.670 
0.34
11.3%
3.120 
0.45
132.4%
StarHub
3.700 
3.240 
0.46
12.4%
3.800 
0.56
121.7%
ThaiBev
0.690 
0.660 
0.03
4.3%
0.775 
0.115
383.3%
UOB
19.610 
16.800 
2.81
14.3%
18.640 
1.84
65.5%
UOL
6.240 
5.390 
0.85
13.6%
6.000 
0.61
71.8%
Wilmar Intl
2.940 
2.610 
0.33
11.2%
3.240 
0.63
190.9%
YZJ ShipBldg SGD
1.100 
0.865 
0.235
21.4%
0.995 
0.13
55.3%
Average
 
 
 
14.6%
 
 
 
STI
2882.730 
2528.440 
354.29
12.3%
2850.520 
322.08
90.9%
STI ETF
2.950 
2.540 
0.41
13.9%
2.860 
0.32
78.0%
Nikko AM STI ETF
3.000 
2.590 
0.41
13.7%
2.910 
0.32
78.0%


From the table above, it can be seen that the STI has dropped 12.3% since the end of 2015 but has since retraced up to 90.9%.   Of the STI constituent stocks, in terms of percentage, Noble, Sembcorp Ind, Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine and Global Logistic have dropped the most.  Noble has the biggest drop with 33.8%.  

The average drop of all the STI constituent counters is 14.6%, which is more than the STI's.   The ETFs dropped about 13.7~13.9%, which is also more than the STI's.   A total of 11 STI constituent counters has dropped more than the average percentage.   That is less than half of the total number of counters.
 
Looking at the counters that have dropped the most, 3 of them are companies that are have businesses in the Offshore & Marine sector.   This is not unexpected due to the plunge in oil price.
 
On the other hand, SATS, Capitamall Trust, SIA, ThaiBev and Golden Agri-Res have dropped the least.   SATS has the lowest drop of 2.3%.   Altogether, 9 counters have dropped less than 10%.
 
On recovery, to date, Capitamall Trust, Golden Agri-Res, ThaiBev, SATS and Jardine C&C have retraced the most, recovering all losses made in 2016 and then some.   Capitamall Trust has retraced 616.8%, which is the highest.   Altogether, 19 counters manage to retrace at least 100% of their losses this year.   Both the ETFs achieved a 78.0% retracement.

Out of the 5 counters that have retraced the most, 4 of them, namely, Capitamall Trust, Golden Agri-Res, ThaiBev and SATS are also among the top 5 counters that have dropped least.   This shows that when the STI makes a correction, stocks that fall only slightly correspondingly rebound to greater heights when the index recovers.

Out of the 5 counters that have dropped the most, 3 of them have retraced at least 100%.   They are Noble, Sembcorp Ind and Sembcorp Marine.
 
On the other hand, HongkongLand USD, HPH Trust USD, Global Logistic, UOB and DBS have made the smallest retracements.   HongkongLand USD has managed to retrace only 42.7%, which is the lowest.   The laggards in this rebound include 2 banks, namely, OUB and DBS.

For the ETFs, they tend to drop slightly more than the STI (13.7%~13.9% vs 12.3%) and in recovery, they also do not retrace as much (78.0% vs 90.9%).

Out of the 30 STI constituent counters, 16 of them dropped more than the index when it fell and in the subsequent recovery, 21 of them retraced more than the index.  

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