Portfolio as of 31 March 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 31 March 2016 are as follows:

Ascott Reit

Cache Log Trust

CapitaCom Trust

CapitaMall Trust

CapitaR China Tr

CDL HTrust

DBS

Frasers Com Tr

HongkongLand USD

M1

Mapletree Com Tr

OCBC Bank

Q&M Dental

Sheng Siong

Singtel

Starhub

ThaiBev

UOB

Venture

All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

50th Annual General Meeting of Public Bank Bhd

I attended Public Bank Bhd's 50th Annual General Meeting at the Shangri-La Hotel in Kuala Lumpur today.   The meeting commenced at 11:00am and ended at about 12:30pm.

 

Upon registration, I was given a souvenir coupon, a food coupon and a parking coupon.

 

I queued to exchange the souvenir coupon for the souvenir items.   These were what I got as souvenirs:

 

 

 

Then I queued for the food.   This was the lunch box that I got:

 

 

 

The food in the container included the following (in clockwise order from the upper left corner):

• 1 wrapped glutinous rice with diced chicken and mushroom
1 stick of 2 chicken lollipops
2 turkey and cheese sandwiches


• 2 fruit tartlets
• 1 packet of chilli sauce
• 2 mini golden spiral curry puffs
• 2 prawn kataifis
• 1 deep fried salmon and yam puff

The food was nice.

 

 

 

 

 

Performance of the STI and its Constituents

The STI closed positive for the first time this year on 18 March.   It closed at 2906.80, 0.8% above its closing price on 31 December 2015.

 

The corresponding performances of individual STI constituent stocks as well as the STI ETF and Nikko AM STI ETF are shown together with the STI in the table below.

 

	Closing price  on  31 Dec 2015 ($)	Closing price on 18 Mar 2016 ($)	Gain / Loss (%)
Ascendas Reit	2.280	2.480	8.8%
Capitaland	3.380	3.170	-6.2%
Capitamall Trust	1.930	2.140	10.9%
CityDev	7.650	7.850	2.6%
ComfortDelGro	3.050	2.970	-2.6%
DBS	16.690	16.020	-4.0%
Genting Sing	0.770	0.820	6.5%
Global Logistic	2.150	1.895	-11.9%
Golden Agri-Res	0.340	0.430	26.5%
HongkongLand USD	7.000	6.180	-11.7%
HPH Trust USD	0.530	0.520	-1.9%
Jardine C&C	34.850	40.400	15.9%
Keppel Corp	6.510	6.120	-6.0%
Noble	0.400	0.430	7.5%
OCBC Bank	8.800	9.270	5.3%
SATS	3.840	3.910	1.8%
Sembcorp Ind	3.050	3.170	3.9%
Sembcorp Marine	1.750	1.745	-0.3%
SGX	7.700	7.890	2.5%
SIA	11.200	11.510	2.8%
SIA Engineering	3.700	3.580	-3.2%
Singtel	3.670	3.890	6.0%
SPH	3.940	4.030	2.3%
ST Engineering	3.010	3.230	7.3%
StarHub	3.700	3.340	-9.7%
ThaiBev	0.690	0.730	5.8%
UOB	19.610	19.290	-1.6%
UOL	6.240	6.010	-3.7%
Wilmar Intl	2.940	3.310	12.6%
YZJ ShipBldg SGD	1.100	1.010	-8.2%
STI	2882.73	2906.80	0.8%
STI ETF	2.950	2.910	-1.4%
Nikko AM STI ETF	3.000	2.960	-1.3%

From the table above, it can be seen a number of STI constituent stocks are also already positive this year.   The number of STI constituent stocks that are positive currently is 17, whereas the other 13 have yet to turn positive.   The two ETFs are still in negative territory.

Golden Agri-Res has the best performance with a 26.5% gain, followed by Jardine C&C, Wilmar Intl and Capitamall Trust.

 

On the other hand, Global Logistic is the most lagging with a -11.9% loss, followed by HongkongLand USD, Starhub and YZJ ShipBldg SGD.

The graph below shows the daily chart of the STI for this year.

 

 

It can be seen from the graph that the STI reached the bottom on 21 January and started to retrace after 12 February.   It took 14 trading days to reach the bottom and 25 trading days to make a 100% recovery.   The number of days required for the recovery is 11 more than that for the decline.





 

Correction and Retracement of the STI and its Constituents

Up till today, the STI has dropped from its closing value of 2882.73 on 31 December 2015 to a low of 2528.44 and subsequently recovered to touch a high of 2850.52.   It makes a drop of 12.3% and, thus far, a maximum retracement of 90.9%.

The corresponding performances of individual STI constituent stocks as well as the STI ETF and Nikko AM STI ETF are shown together with the STI in the table below.

	Closing price  on 31 Dec  2015 ($)	Lowest price  in 2016 ($)	Drop ($)	Drop (%)	Highest price  since lowest	Retracement ($)	Retracement  (%)
Ascendas Reit	2.280	2.090	0.19	8.3%	2.440	0.35	184.2%
Capitaland	3.380	2.800	0.58	17.2%	3.190	0.39	67.2%
Capitamall Trust	1.930	1.870	0.06	3.1%	2.240	0.37	616.7%
CityDev	7.650	6.750	0.9	11.8%	7.830	1.08	120.0%
ComfortDelGro	3.050	2.780	0.27	8.9%	3.050	0.27	100.0%
DBS	16.690	13.010	3.68	22.0%	15.590	2.58	70.1%
Genting Sing	0.770	0.660	0.11	14.3%	0.790	0.13	118.2%
Global Logistic	2.150	1.595	0.555	25.8%	1.930	0.335	60.4%
Golden Agri-Res	0.340	0.325	0.015	4.4%	0.405	0.08	533.3%
HongkongLand USD	7.000	5.550	1.45	20.7%	6.160	0.61	42.1%
HPH Trust USD	0.530	0.410	0.12	22.6%	0.495	0.085	70.8%
Jardine C&C	34.850	32.370	2.48	7.1%	41.070	8.7	350.8%
Keppel Corp	6.510	4.640	1.87	28.7%	6.340	1.7	90.9%
Noble	0.400	0.265	0.135	33.8%	0.460	0.195	144.4%
OCBC Bank	8.800	7.410	1.39	15.8%	8.840	1.43	102.9%
SATS	3.840	3.750	0.09	2.3%	4.080	0.33	366.7%
Sembcorp Ind	3.050	2.160	0.89	29.2%	3.240	1.08	121.3%
Sembcorp Marine	1.750	1.295	0.455	26.0%	1.835	0.54	118.7%
SGX	7.700	6.610	1.09	14.2%	7.700	1.09	100.0%
SIA	11.200	10.760	0.44	3.9%	11.600	0.84	190.9%
SIA Engineering	3.700	3.310	0.39	10.5%	3.690	0.38	97.4%
Singtel	3.670	3.380	0.29	7.9%	3.830	0.45	155.2%
SPH	3.940	3.500	0.44	11.2%	3.950	0.45	102.3%
ST Engineering	3.010	2.670	0.34	11.3%	3.120	0.45	132.4%
StarHub	3.700	3.240	0.46	12.4%	3.800	0.56	121.7%
ThaiBev	0.690	0.660	0.03	4.3%	0.775	0.115	383.3%
UOB	19.610	16.800	2.81	14.3%	18.640	1.84	65.5%
UOL	6.240	5.390	0.85	13.6%	6.000	0.61	71.8%
Wilmar Intl	2.940	2.610	0.33	11.2%	3.240	0.63	190.9%
YZJ ShipBldg SGD	1.100	0.865	0.235	21.4%	0.995	0.13	55.3%
Average				14.6%
STI	2882.730	2528.440	354.29	12.3%	2850.520	322.08	90.9%
STI ETF	2.950	2.540	0.41	13.9%	2.860	0.32	78.0%
Nikko AM STI ETF	3.000	2.590	0.41	13.7%	2.910	0.32	78.0%

From the table above, it can be seen that the STI has dropped 12.3% since the end of 2015 but has since retraced up to 90.9%.   Of the STI constituent stocks, in terms of percentage, Noble, Sembcorp Ind, Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine and Global Logistic have dropped the most.  Noble has the biggest drop with 33.8%.  

The average drop of all the STI constituent counters is 14.6%, which is more than the STI's.   The ETFs dropped about 13.7~13.9%, which is also more than the STI's.   A total of 11 STI constituent counters has dropped more than the average percentage.   That is less than half of the total number of counters.
 

Looking at the counters that have dropped the most, 3 of them are companies that are have businesses in the Offshore & Marine sector.   This is not unexpected due to the plunge in oil price.

 

On the other hand, SATS, Capitamall Trust, SIA, ThaiBev and Golden Agri-Res have dropped the least.   SATS has the lowest drop of 2.3%.   Altogether, 9 counters have dropped less than 10%.
 

On recovery, to date, Capitamall Trust, Golden Agri-Res, ThaiBev, SATS and Jardine C&C have retraced the most, recovering all losses made in 2016 and then some.   Capitamall Trust has retraced 616.8%, which is the highest.   Altogether, 19 counters manage to retrace at least 100% of their losses this year.   Both the ETFs achieved a 78.0% retracement.

Out of the 5 counters that have retraced the most, 4 of them, namely, Capitamall Trust, Golden Agri-Res, ThaiBev and SATS are also among the top 5 counters that have dropped least.   This shows that when the STI makes a correction, stocks that fall only slightly correspondingly rebound to greater heights when the index recovers.

Out of the 5 counters that have dropped the most, 3 of them have retraced at least 100%.   They are Noble, Sembcorp Ind and Sembcorp Marine.

 

On the other hand, HongkongLand USD, HPH Trust USD, Global Logistic, UOB and DBS have made the smallest retracements.   HongkongLand USD has managed to retrace only 42.7%, which is the lowest.   The laggards in this rebound include 2 banks, namely, OUB and DBS.

For the ETFs, they tend to drop slightly more than the STI (13.7%~13.9% vs 12.3%) and in recovery, they also do not retrace as much (78.0% vs 90.9%).

Out of the 30 STI constituent counters, 16 of them dropped more than the index when it fell and in the subsequent recovery, 21 of them retraced more than the index.