Friday, December 30, 2016

Report Card for 2016

Overall
 
My net returns (realised profits + unrealised capital gains + dividends - brokerage fees) in 2016 from investments made on counters listed on the SGX are as shown in the table below:


Investment MeanMedianHighest
Returns9.81%10.39%6.38%
 
 
I keep a record of certain data of my investments, including total investment, on SGX counters at the end of each day.   With these data, I can find the values of my mean, median and highest total investments on the SGX for the whole year.   The returns shown in the table above are determined with respect to these values derived from my daily records.
 
My net returns in 2016 from investments made on counters listed on the Bursa Malaysia is -12.27%.   This percentage is computed based on my current investment.   I do not keep as detailed my investments on counters on the Bursa as those on the SGX.


Cumulative Monthly Performance
 
The cumulative returns at the end of each month, with respect to my highest total investment, of my investments on counters on the SGX is shown in the table below:
 

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
-5.07%-5.24%-1.17%0.89%1.90%5.07%7.02%9.11%9.37%7.58%7.18%6.38%


The highest peak is 9.94%, attained on 8 September and the lowest bottom -7.12%, touched on 12 February.

 
Selected Sectors
 
The performance of my investments, based on counters listed on the SGX, in selected sectors are as follows:
 
 
SectorTelcosBanksReitsNon-ReitsIndex-linkedNon-index-linked
Returns0.29%5.04%5.07%5.01%1.66%6.45%
 
 
I do not keep similar information on my investments on counters listed on the Bursa.
 
 
3 Best Performing Counters
 
The 3 counters on the SGX that are most kind to me in 2016 percentage-wise are
  1. SingMedical
  2. Best World
  3. ST Engineering
and quantum-wise are
  1. Best World
  2. Sheng Siong
  3. OCBC
 
The 3 counters on the Bursa that are most kind to me in 2016 percentage-wise are
  1. MYEG
  2. HARTA
  3. PBBANK
and quantum-wise are
  1. MYEG
  2. PBBANK
  3. HARTA

3 Worst Performing Counters
 
The 3 counters on the SGX that are most hostile to me in 2016 percentage-wise are
  1. UG Healthcare
  2. China Star Food
  3. IFAST
and quantum-wise are
  1. UG Healthcare
  2. Capitaland
  3. IFAST 
 
The 3 counters on the Bursa that are most hostile to me in 2016 percentage-wise are
  1. TOPGLOV
  2. CAREPLS
  3. SKPRES-WA
and quantum-wise are
  1. TOPGLOV
  2. CAREPLS
  3. HEVEA
 
 












Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Portfolio as of 30 November 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 30 November 2016 are described below.

 
CEI
Ezion
Frasers Com Tr
HC Surgical
Hi-P
LHN
OCBC Bank
Sheng Siong
Singapore O&G
SingTel
StarHub
  
All the above are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

 
ANNJOO
 
The above is a counter on Bursa Malaysia.
 

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding. 

Monday, November 7, 2016

How the STI may Perform in November and December 2016

The performance of the STI in the months of June through October (in comparison with the previous month) this year is shown in the table below:
 

MonthJunJulAugSepOct
STI49.8727.76-48.148.88-55.6

 
From the table above, it can be seen that the STI was up at the end of June, July and September whereas it ended down in August and October.
 
In the last 20 years, there were only 7 other times in which the STI had similarly ended higher in June, July and September.   These 7 times happened in the years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012.   The performance of the STI in the months of August and October during these years are summarised in the table below:

 
AugOct
200340.3892.91
200426.63-4.05
2005-77.13-88.37
200636.96132.89
2009-66.30-21.44
2010-37.3744.99
2012-10.94-21.97


As can be seen from the table above, the performance of the STI in August and October varied in those years.   It was down in both months in 2005, 2009 and 2012, down in August but up in October in 2010, up in both August and October in 2003 and 2006 and up in August but down in October in 2004.

The graph below shows the STI against the months from May through December for the 7 years as well as for 2016:


 

Take a look at the performance of the STI in the months of November and December during the years shown in the graph.   In 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012, the STI had gone higher in both November and December.   In the remaining year 2003, it went down in November (actually by a mere 9.7 points) but was up again in December.   Hence, the results show that if the STI went up in June, July and September of a year, it tended to end higher in the subsequent months of November and December that same year.

The STI has shown a similar behaviour in its performance in ending higher in June, July and September this year.   So, would it follow its past performance and proceed to finish higher in both November and December this year?

 


 
 

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Portfolio as of 31 October 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 31 October 2016 are as follows:


Advancer Global
AIMSAMP Cap Reit
Best World
CEI
CNMC Goldmine
DBS
Ezion
Frasers Cpt Tr
Jumbo
Mapletree Com Tr
Mapletree GCC Tr
Mapletree Ind Tr
Nam Lee Metal
Neratel
OCBC Bank
Raffles Medical
Sheng Siong
Singapore O&G
SingMedical
SingPost
StarhillGbl Reit
 
 
All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding. 

Sunday, October 23, 2016

I Went to the 4th Annual General Meeting of the YTL Hospitality REIT

I went to YTL Hospitality REIT's 4th Annual General Meeting at the JW Marriot Hotel Kuala Lumpur on Friday as a proxy.  

The meeting was to scheduled to start at 3:00pm.  

When I reached there, I went to do the  registration and was given a set of $5 and $10 meal vouchers that totalled $50.




I had arrived there a little after 3:00pm and barely had I finished my registration, the doors of the function room where the meeting was held were opened.   The meeting had ended.   I took a look at my mobile phone and it showed 3:15pm.
 
I thought I was lucky to have completed my registration just before the meeting ended and in time to collect the meal vouchers.

I then walked over to Lot 10, which was only a few blocks away, and went to its basement where the Lot 10 Hutong was located.




At one of the stalls there, I exchanged a $10 and a $5 voucher for the meal shown below.




It was peppered pork belly soup with steamed rice.   The meal cost $16.50.   I paid the additional amount by cash.

I am keeping the rest of my vouchers for my future visits to the Bukit Bintang area.
 

Monday, October 3, 2016

Portfolio as of 30 September 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 30 September 2016 are as follows:


Acromec
Advancer Global
AIMSAMP Cap Reit
Best World
Cambridge Ind Tr
CEI
CNMC Goldmine
DBS
Frasers Cpt Tr
Innovalues
Jumbo
Katrina
Keppel DC Reit
Nam Lee Metal
Neratel
OCBC Bank
Parkway Life Reit
Raffles Medical
Sheng Siong
Singapore O&G
SingMedical
StarhillGbl Reit
Suntec Reit
 
 
All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding. 

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Portfolio as of 31 August 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 31 August 2016 are as follows:


Acromec
Advancer Global
Best World
CNMC Goldmine
DBS
Innovalues
Jumbo
M1
OCBC Bank
Parkway Life Reit
Raffles Medical
SembCorp Ind
Sheng Siong
Singapore O&G
SingMedical
Suntec Reit
UOB
Wing Tai

 
All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding. 

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Portfolio as of 31 July 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 31 July 2016 are as follows:


800 Super
Acromec
Advancer Global
Best World
China Aviation
CNMC Goldmine
Innovalues
Jumbo
M1
MM2 Asia
OCBC Bank
Parkway Life Reit
Sheng Siong
ThaiBev
UOB
Wing Tai

 
All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding. 

Monday, August 1, 2016

4th Annual General Meeting of AmFIRST Real Estate Investment Trust

I attended AmFIRST Real Estate Investment Trust's 4th Annual General Meeting at the Berjaya Times Square Hotel Kuala Lumpur last Thursday as a proxy.  

In their announcement at Bursa as well as their letters to shareholders, they stated that the commencement of the meeting was at 10:00am.   But it actually started only at 10:30am.

Upon registration for the meeting, I was given a meal voucher.   I went to another room where they gave me a plastic bag in exchange for my meal voucher.   The plastic bag contained these items:
 
 

 
 
 
I took the plastic bag home.
 

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Will the STI Achieve a Perfect 10/10 Score in August 2016?

The table below shows the performances of the STI for the months of July and August in the last 10 years.
  

JulyAugust
200610.0436.96
2007-0.54-154.75
2008-17.89-189.70
2009326.06-66.30
2010152.19-37.37
201168.82-304.00
2012189.58-10.94
201371.49-192.99
2014118.39-46.97
2015-114.83-281.06
 

It can be seen from the table above that the STI had ended the month of August down from 2007 through 2015.   That was a good 9 years without a break.   In other words, the STI had ended lower in August every year for 9 straight years since 2007.

It had ended down in August irrespective of how it had performed in July.   It might be up a massive 326.06 points, flat with a change of a mere 0.54 point or down by as much as -114.83 points in July, only to invariably end up down at the end of August.

If the STI ended down again this August, it would be down for exactly 10 times in 10 years.   That's a perfect 10/10 score!
 
The last time the STI had ended higher in August was way back in 2006.   At that time, it was on its way of a good run of 8 consecutive months right up to January 2007.   But that is another story for another day.
 
But now, will the STI achieve the unenviable record of ending down 10 times out of 10 this August?
 
Well, let's see at the end of August.
 

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Similar Pattern but in the Opposite Direction

I saw something interesting in the candlestick daily chart of the counter Best World today.   The chart is as shown below.
 
 
 
 
Looking at the chart pattern of the last few trading days, it can be seen that the candles from 12 July through yesterday, 18 July, were all black candles.   The closing price each day was lower than that of the previous.   Then, today, 19 July, there is a candle with a short body.  It is much shorter than that the body of yesterday's candle.   Its position is such that its body is completely nestled within the body of yesterday's candle.  
 
Let's now take a look at the chart pattern that occurred sometime back in early June.   The candles from 2 June through 7 June are all white candles.   The closing price each day then was higher than that of the previous day.   Then, on 8 June, there was a candle with a short body that was totally nestled within the body of the previous day's candle.
 
So, the chart pattern that occurred during the last few days is similar to that that occurred from 2 - 8 June, but in the opposite direction.
 
On 9 June, the day immediately after the appearance of the short candle that was nestled within a longer one, there was a huge drop in the price as illustrated by the long black candle.
 
So now, with the pattern of the last few days similar but in the opposite direction to that of 2 - 8 June, and with a similar short candle today, will there be a sharp jump in the price of Best World tomorrow?
 
Let's find out tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Saturday, July 2, 2016

Portfolio as of 30 June 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 30 June 2016 are as follows:


800 Super
Acromec
AIMSAMP Cap Reit
Ascendas Reit
Best World
China Everbright
CNMC Goldmine
DBS
Ezion
Jumbo
MM2 Asia
OCBC Bank
Raffles Medical
SATS
Sheng Siong
SIA Engineering
UOB
 

All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding. 

Friday, June 10, 2016

The Euro Effects on the STI

The Euro (not the currency but the football competition known as the UEFA European Championship) kicks off today.   It will last a good 1 month till the final on 10 July.  
 
Football fans around the world will be busy following the matches of the tournament and a lot of them will be watching them live.   During this period, there will be people taking leave, turning up with sleepy eyes at the office, taking MC's, etc.   With the frenzy gripping football fans across the world, will the performance of the STI be affected?   How much will the Euro affect the STI, if at all?
 
Let's take a look at the performances of the STI in the past years during the times when the Euro's were held.

 
Scope
 
We shall take a look at whether the Euro had any effect on the STI in terms of 3 factors:
  - the volume of shares transacted,
  - the range of the index and
  - the biggest intraday range of the index
during the whole period when the tournament was in progress.
 
We shall use the data from the years 2000 to 2015.

The Euro is held in even-numbered years in which the number is divisible by 4.   Hence, from 2000 and 2015, the years in which the Euro's were held were 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012.   Let's call these the Euro years and the others, the non-Euro years.

The non-Euro years shall include all the odd-numbered years from 2000 through 2015.   These include 2001, 2003 ... 2013 and 2015, a total number of 8 years.   (Note: The even-numbered years in which the number is not divisible by 4 are years in which the World Cup were held.   In order to avoid the inclusion of unwanted World Cup influences, if any, on the results, the World Cup years are left out of the non-Euro years.)

The performances of the STI during the Euro years are compared to those during the non-Euro years in terms of the 3 factors as specified above.

  
Methodology
 
The actual dates of the Euro's in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 are shown in the table below:


Start dateEnd date
200010 June 2000 (Saturday)2 July 2000 (Sunday)
200412 June 2004 (Saturday)4 July 2004 (Sunday)
20087 June 2008 (Saturday)29 June 2008 (Sunday)
20128 June 2012 (Friday)1 July 2012 (Sunday)


Each tournament spanned about 3 weeks, starting from around early June and ending at the end of June or early July.   (The current Euro competition lasts about 1 month though.)

Since the opening matches were played during the weekends and the SGX bourse was closed at that time and the final matches played were at a time when the market had not opened yet, the timespan of each Euro was taken as over 15 trading days, or 3 weeks.

The timespan chosen for all non-Euro years is from 11 June to 1 July, inclusive.   The dates are selected based on the average of the start dates and end dates of the Euro's so that they cover about the same interval as the Euro.   The length of this timespan is also 3 weeks.  


Results

The results obtained are shown in the table below.


STI
Total volume
(billions)
Index range
(points)
Biggest intraday range
(points)
Euro years
20000.84116.7374.53
20041.7572.3526.22
20082.98162.8450.01
20123.84137.7043.82
Average2.35122.4148.65
Non-Euro years
20011.7757.0330.01
20033.0280.8834.30
20052.2043.3422.28
20075.11167.0052.36
20095.35185.7650.97
20114.24142.4043.68
20134.64169.6767.23
20153.3893.4444.94
Average3.71117.4443.22
Percentage-36.7%4.2%12.5%


Total volume

The average of the total volume of STI shares transacted during Euro and non-Euro years are 2.35 and 3.71 billions per year respectively.   Hence, on the average, the volume of shares transacted during a Euro year is only about 63.3% of that of a non-Euro year.   In other words, there was a reduction of 36.7%, slightly more than one-third, in the volume of shares transacted when a Euro was in progress compared to when there was not.   This reduction can be considered as substantial.

Index range

The data show that the difference between the highest and lowest points of the STI when a Euro was in progress could be as little as 72.35 points and as much as 162.84 points, with the average range at 122.41 points.   On the other hand, the values were as low as 43.34 points and as high as 185.76 points when there was no Euro, with the average at 117.44 points.   On the average, the range of the STI when there was a Euro was thus 4.2% higher than when there was no Euro.

Biggest intraday range

The biggest intraday ranges of the STI during Euro years spanned from as low as 26.22 points to as high as 74.53 points, with an average of 48.65 points.   For non-Euro years, it ranged from 22.28 points to 67.23 points and averaging at 43.22 points.   The average biggest intraday range for Euro years was 112.5% of that for non-Euro years.   It can be seen from these results that the STI generally changed more intraday during a Euro.

The data on the range of the STI for the period as well as its intraday ranges show that the index fluctuated slightly more during a Euro.


Conclusions

When the Euro's were in progress, the volumes of share transactions for the STI were much reduced and the index was more volatile than when there was no Euro.