Monday, November 7, 2016

How the STI may Perform in November and December 2016

The performance of the STI in the months of June through October (in comparison with the previous month) this year is shown in the table below:


From the table above, it can be seen that the STI was up at the end of June, July and September whereas it ended down in August and October.
In the last 20 years, there were only 7 other times in which the STI had similarly ended higher in June, July and September.   These 7 times happened in the years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012.   The performance of the STI in the months of August and October during these years are summarised in the table below:


As can be seen from the table above, the performance of the STI in August and October varied in those years.   It was down in both months in 2005, 2009 and 2012, down in August but up in October in 2010, up in both August and October in 2003 and 2006 and up in August but down in October in 2004.

The graph below shows the STI against the months from May through December for the 7 years as well as for 2016:


Take a look at the performance of the STI in the months of November and December during the years shown in the graph.   In 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012, the STI had gone higher in both November and December.   In the remaining year 2003, it went down in November (actually by a mere 9.7 points) but was up again in December.   Hence, the results show that if the STI went up in June, July and September of a year, it tended to end higher in the subsequent months of November and December that same year.

The STI has shown a similar behaviour in its performance in ending higher in June, July and September this year.   So, would it follow its past performance and proceed to finish higher in both November and December this year?



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