How the STI will Probably Perform in April 2016

The table below shows the month-on-month performances of the STI for March and April in the last 20 years:

	Gain / Loss  month-on-month
	March	April
1996	-51.20	28.40
1997	-122.70	-68.70
1998	13.80	-135.80
1999	106.40	367.88
2000	12.09	31.52
2001	-273.21	48.53
2002	87.64	-77.85
2003	-6.03	13.51
2004	-29.71	-16.89
2005	22.03	-16.18
2006	51.44	77.31
2007	127.09	130.05
2008	-19.09	140.43
2009	105.12	220.29
2010	136.60	87.15
2011	95.34	74.01
2012	16.40	-31.89
2013	38.15	60.08
2014	77.84	76.09
2015	44.15	40.38
Average	21.61	52.42
2016	174.39	?

  

From the table, looking at the performances of the STI in April, it can be seen that the STI has ended positive month-on-month in April for 7 times out of 10 during the past 20 years and 9 times out of 10 in the last 10 years.   Since 2006, the STI has recorded gains in every April, except in 2012. 

The minimum gain attained by the STI in April in these 20 years is 13.51 points and the maximum, 367.88 points.   On the other hand, the minimum loss is -16.18 points and the maximum, -135.80 points.   On the whole, the STI achieves an average increase of 52.42 points in April for the past 20 years and 87.39 points for the last 10 years.

 

The performance of the STI in March this year is quite remarkable.   It has ended the month up 174.39 points, the biggest in all these 21 years.   There are only 4 times in the past 20 years that the STI has achieved a gain of more than 100 points in March.   They are in 1999, 2007, 2009 and 2010.   All but 1 of these achievements come about in the last 10 years.

 

In 1999, the STI goes up by 106.40 points in March and a massive 367.88 points in April.   In 2007, it records a jump of 127.09 points in March and another 130.05 points in April.   In 2009, it surges 105.12 points in March and then 220.29 points in April.   In 2010, it climbs 136.60 points in March and an additional 87.15 points in April.   These data show that if the STI rises by more than 100 points in March, it will also end April with a gain.

  

The STI has gained 174.39 points month-on-month this March.   Past records show that the STI usually performs very well in April and this is particularly so in the last 10 years.   In addition, an advance of more than 100 points by the STI in March is always followed by a further gain in April.   All these data point to a highly probable positive performance of the STI in April.   So, will the STI end higher this April?   Let's watch it unfold.