Will the STI Achieve a Perfect 10/10 Score in August 2016?

The table below shows the performances of the STI for the months of July and August in the last 10 years.

  

	July	August
2006	10.04	36.96
2007	-0.54	-154.75
2008	-17.89	-189.70
2009	326.06	-66.30
2010	152.19	-37.37
2011	68.82	-304.00
2012	189.58	-10.94
2013	71.49	-192.99
2014	118.39	-46.97
2015	-114.83	-281.06

 

It can be seen from the table above that the STI had ended the month of August down from 2007 through 2015.   That was a good 9 years without a break.   In other words, the STI had ended lower in August every year for 9 straight years since 2007.

It had ended down in August irrespective of how it had performed in July.   It might be up a massive 326.06 points, flat with a change of a mere 0.54 point or down by as much as -114.83 points in July, only to invariably end up down at the end of August.

If the STI ended down again this August, it would be down for exactly 10 times in 10 years.   That's a perfect 10/10 score!

 

The last time the STI had ended higher in August was way back in 2006.   At that time, it was on its way of a good run of 8 consecutive months right up to January 2007.   But that is another story for another day.

 

But now, will the STI achieve the unenviable record of ending down 10 times out of 10 this August?

 

Well, let's see at the end of August.

 

Similar Pattern but in the Opposite Direction

I saw something interesting in the candlestick daily chart of the counter Best World today.   The chart is as shown below.

 

 

 

 

Looking at the chart pattern of the last few trading days, it can be seen that the candles from 12 July through yesterday, 18 July, were all black candles.   The closing price each day was lower than that of the previous.   Then, today, 19 July, there is a candle with a short body.  It is much shorter than that the body of yesterday's candle.   Its position is such that its body is completely nestled within the body of yesterday's candle.  

 

Let's now take a look at the chart pattern that occurred sometime back in early June.   The candles from 2 June through 7 June are all white candles.   The closing price each day then was higher than that of the previous day.   Then, on 8 June, there was a candle with a short body that was totally nestled within the body of the previous day's candle.

 

So, the chart pattern that occurred during the last few days is similar to that that occurred from 2 - 8 June, but in the opposite direction.

 

On 9 June, the day immediately after the appearance of the short candle that was nestled within a longer one, there was a huge drop in the price as illustrated by the long black candle.

 

So now, with the pattern of the last few days similar but in the opposite direction to that of 2 - 8 June, and with a similar short candle today, will there be a sharp jump in the price of Best World tomorrow?

 

Let's find out tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Portfolio as of 30 June 2016

The stocks that I have bought this year and which I am still holding as of 30 June 2016 are as follows:

800 Super

Acromec

AIMSAMP Cap Reit
Ascendas Reit

Best World

China Everbright

CNMC Goldmine

DBS

Ezion

Jumbo
MM2 Asia

OCBC Bank

Raffles Medical

SATS

Sheng Siong
SIA Engineering

UOB

 

All of them are counters on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

A counter that appears both here and in the previous month's portfolio may differ in terms of size of holding.